Making Waves: Democratic Contention in Europe and Latin America

Political regime changes and conflicts over such transitions often occur in clusters and advance like waves. As one country transforms its constitutional framework, discontented actors in other countries take inspiration from this precedent and start to undertake similar efforts. The frontrunner's success encourages them to challenge their own rulers and push for transforming the way in which political authority is exercised. Due to such demonstration effects, regime contention frequently snowballs and sometimes triggers avalanches (Markoff 1996). For instance, the French revolutions of 1830 and especially 1848 set in motion dramatic diffusion processes; within one month of " Citizen King " Louis Philippe's overthrow in February 1848, half of Europe stood aflame, engulfed by protests and rebellions against autocratic princes (Sperber 1994; Dowe, Haupt, et al. 2001). The Russian Revolutions of 1917 also spurred contention and regime change throughout Central and Eastern Europe from 1917 to 1919; and the " third wave of democratization " that started in Southern Europe in 1974 rippled across the world during Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñán forthcoming). These waves of regime contention have had divergent characteristics, however. The differences in timing are particularly striking. Regime conflict during the third wave unfolded over the course of two decades (1974 to early 1990s), whereas the 1848 revolution spread explosively within days (Traugott 2010: 131-42): Louis Philippe's downfall on 24 February triggered mobilization and protests in Baden on 27 February news of the Paris events traveled before television and cell phones. Rebellion also proved quickly contagious in 1830, when the French King's overthrow in July triggered protests In the 20 th century, by contrast, regime contention spread much more slowly. The wave of rebellions inspired by the Russian Revolutions of 1917 got under way in late 1918 and early 1919 only, more than a year after the triggering events. The third wave of democratization advanced at an even more leisurely pace. In South America, for instance, regime contention erupted three years after the Thus, the third wave took more than a decade to unfold in South America, whereas the 1848 revolutions swept across Europe in less than one month. That efforts at regime change in Europe and Latin America tended to diffuse more quickly during the 19 th than the 20 th century is puzzling. 1 Given tremendous advances in communication and transportation, one would expect acceleration. But the fastest diffusion process in the …